How Le Pen Continues to Gain Ground
Preface
This article is purely an opinion piece I wrote after spending time in France, and talking with French citizens about the issues with their system and policy positions. I backpacked through Western Europe in June and July of 2022, and I've always had an interest in French politics. Most French people I talked to about their politics were often surprised I could name their president, much less candidates and their policy. Once they found that I did actually care about what as going on within France, they were actually more than happy to share with me their thoughts on their internal politics (and of course about American politics).
What's the problem?
Saying Le Pen often comes accompanied with a mild grimace from the other person in Metropolitan France, I've found. Le Pen has managed to gain popularity and a foothold in French Politics because of Macron's moderate policy and sometimes monarchal use of power. And it's catching up to him, and it's going to become a problem for everyone who isn't a fan of xenophobia and nationalism (Le Pen).
Looking at electoral maps, you can see that Le Pen found some success in all areas, but had had a majority concentrated around the rusting northeast regions of Hauts-de-France and the Grand-Est. I visited Mulhouse, Colmar, Strasbourg, Dunkerque, Lille, and passed through Nancy and Metz.
Le Pen does well in the northeast and southwest of France because these are regions left behind by globalization, and by Macron. I can't speak for the southwest, but in the northeast, people are hurting. A lot of the people I spoke to were not happy with the current administration, and they feel left behind by a majoritarian that does not care about them. Enter Le Pen. She knows that blue-collar French people need help, and by speaking to the needs of the hungry, she makes them feel heard. Unlike Marcon in the Elysée Palace, she's out with them. It's here that xenophobia and nationalism spread. When you need food on your plate, it's hard to hear about moderation. They need change, and whoever is going to bring it is the candidate who they'll vote for. Car salesmen, port workers, metro operators, retail employees. They're not going to vote for the candidate who was big on vaccines, they're going to vote for who they think will keep their job safe, and who they think will increase their real purchasing power.
If Macron and En Marche do not start hearing the people, the people will turn against them. That would be terrible, for France, and for the rest of Europe. A Le Pen presidency would spell doom for a progressive and united Europe. It would destabilize international cooperation, and fracture a possible response to increasingly aggressive Russian foreign policy.
